FOREX review from ForexCloud, 12/13/11

I have changed my posts format. Now it will be "almost every day" comments with links to my charts from tradingview.com (beautiful web site!!!) . Yesterday we had some bearish movement - market doesn't believe to the Euro summit results. Tonight was some bullish correction (most charts had divergence in CCI). And today I'm ready for bearish movement after FOMC rate decision. There is some small chance that Mr. Bernanke will announce QE3, but very small...




EUR/USD 12/13/11 by ForexCloud on TradingView.com




GBP/USD 12/13/11 by ForexCloud on TradingView.com




AUD/USD 12/13/11 by ForexCloud on TradingView.com

FOREX review for the next week (10/31/11 – 11/04/11) from ForexCloud

The last prognosis related to the EUR/USD pair was 100% correct. The pair reached the price level of 1.42 on Thursday (maximum price was 1.4247) and finished the week with 1.4146. We can’t say the same about the oil price prognosis. It looks like the Libyan situation doesn’t have a big impact on the oil price and the price continues to grow up to $94 per barrel (WTI Crude).

This week will bring four very important events – the FOMC rate decision and Mr. Bernanke’s press conference (Wednesday) and the ECB rate decision and Mr. Draghi’s press conference (Thursday). These events will shine some light to the economic plans of the US and Europe (the two main players) and we will build our trade plans on top of this.  In the short term, we can expect some correctional movement on Monday and Tuesday.

FOREX review for the next week (10/24/11 – 10/28/11) from ForexCloud

Last week was the “correction week”; as we mentioned this possibility in our previous review. On Monday, the EUR/USD pair had a little jump up to 1.3914 (it was its reaction to the European’s minister’s financial meeting) and it reached October’s maximum price. After that, on Tuesday, all markets went on the correctional movement and the EUR/USD price fell to the support level of 1.3700 (the minimum short time value was 1.3652). The next three days were with high volatility and on Friday, the market came back to the bullish movement and finished the week off with almost the same prices, just like it started. On the weekly chart we can see a nice “hammer” candle. It means that this week, we can expect a continuous bullish trend and we can expect that the EUR/USD price will reach at least 1.4000.

There are a few reasons why this prognosis can fail. The first one can be a minor result from the EU summit (very unlikely) and the second, there can be some very bad economic news during the week, but as far as we don’t have any important economic news scheduled for the week, this reason is also not very possible.

The oil price for the next week will most likely stay in the same horizontal trend, but we can expect some down movement as a reaction to news from Libya, where the world community can expect the end of the civil war. This pressure cans slow down the bullish ride of “oil dependent” currencies (AUD, NZD, and CAD).

FOREX review for the next week (10/17/11 – 10/21/11) from ForexCloud

The intrigue, of what we have mentioned in our previous review, has been resolved in favor of fundamental data. All last week was bullish. The US dollar was weak related to almost all currencies (except JPY). The oil price (WTI Crude) broke the resistance level at $86.00 and closed last week at $87.30. The next resistance level will be at $90.00, but most likely we will see some correctional movement before the price will reach this level.

The EUR/USD pair finished off last week at 1.3880, almost 1.3900 and most likely will grow to 1.4100 soon. On Monday, we will have some announces from a preliminary meeting of European central bankers and Finance Ministers and most likely it will have some optimistic notes. It will push the euro higher, but as far as we had two bullish weeks, the market can expect some correctional movement soon. A more important event will take place next Saturday when we will have the G20 meeting. Some worries arise from the wave of protest happening in the United States and in Europe. These events will certainly create pressure one the market and can push traders to sell risk.

FOREX review for the next week (10/10/11 – 10/14/11) from ForexCloud

Once again is an intrigue in the market… From one side, the fundamental data and Mr. Trichet indicate that the possibility of a crisis is low and everybody can relax for the next six months. From the other side, rating agencies have downgraded Italy and Spain. This action has pushed the US dollar (right now the most popular safety asset) to new highs. The next week can be a key part for future movements. In the absence of critical, scheduled event risk next week (no NFP or ECB-level releases); the market is concentrating on the underlying fundamental themes.

We can use the oil price like an indicator and will sell the US dollar if the oil price will grow and buy if the price will go down during the next week. Since the US and Canadian markets are closed on Monday, Tuesday should shine some light on the situation. 

FOREX review for the next week (10/03/11 – 10/07/11) from ForexCloud

The last week started off with a correction up trend, but on Thursday, the situation changed and investors started to sell risks again. There were two reasons for this turn. The first one; the Fitch agency has downgraded New Zeeland’s credit rating and the second one; the end of the economic year in the US. This is the first week of the New Year for the US economic and it can bring some new hopes and moves, especially that it has many important events scheduled (Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision, Ben Bernanke speech, European Central Bank rate decision, important unemployment data for US…)  

The EUR/USD pair broke resistance level at 1.3400 and is moving to 1.3000. The next important resistance will be at 1.3300 and if this level is broken, the pair will move to 1.3000. On the other side, the Grease crisis is almost resolved and we can have some correction or turn up movements during the next two weeks.

The oil price (WTI Crude) has tested the price of 78$ for the third time and if it continues this down movement, pairs AUD/USD and NZD/USD will continue fallowing to levels 0.9370 (AUD/USD) and 0.7350 (NZD/USD).

FOREX review for the next week (09/26/11 – 09/30/11) from ForexCloud

The last days of this week were “golden days” for professional traders. The FOMC meeting made it so easy to predict the price movements. No QE3 was announced, no extraordinary measures were taken, and no rabbits were pulled out of any hats. As a result, all traders ran away from the risks and the US dollar became stronger. From Wednesday evening, you can sell EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD and almost all others currencies against the dollar. Easy correction movement took place at the end of Friday when many traders closed their short orders.

It is difficult to make any prediction because the main currency pairs are at strong resistance levels right now and many important economic data will be released during this week. But if we will look closely to the charts we can have some ideas.

The EUR/USD pair finished the week off at 1.3470.On February, 13 2011; this pair has jumped from this exact price level and reached on May 3^d its highest level of the year (1.4940). If EUR/USD breaks 1.3470, it will go down to at least 1.3000, but if there is any good news from Europe, the price can go to the correction trade up to 1.3800 and higher to 1.3900.

 

The WTI Crude Oil price can help us predict how things will go. On Friday, the price was down at $78.00 per barrel, but came back to $80.50. If we see down trade during the next few days and the oil price will go lower than $78.00, it will be a sign for a strong bearish market and EUR, AUD, NZD will go down also. But if the oil price will go back to $82.00 and higher, I will consider selling the US dollar against these currencies.